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What
are my risks?
What
are the chances of a hurricane destroying my home?
No one knows.
We can only go on past history. Almost no one expected
a hurricane as powerful as Iniki would strike Hawaii.
The best we can guess is hurricanes in the future will
probably hit Hawaii as frequently as they have in the
past. We know that since 1950 five hurricanes or tropical
storms have caused serious damage in Hawaii. Hurricane
Nina in 1957 produced record winds in Honolulu. Hurricane
Dot did a lot of damage on Kauai in 1959. Hurricane Iwa
did extensive damage on Kauai and Oahu in 1982. Hurricane
Estelle produced very high surf on Hawaii and Maui and
floods on Oahu in 1986. Hurricane Iniki did extensive
damage on Kauai and Leeward Oahu in 1992. Since 1950,
seven other tropical storms or hurricanes could have caused
serious damage. These include Hurricane Fernanda in 1993,
Hurricane Emilia in 1994, and Hurricane Daniel in August
2000.
Where
have the most wind-related insurance claims been for Oahu?

The
data for this map was compiled from various insurance
firms' homeowner policy claims from 1989 to 1999. This
is intended to serve only for a general hazard indicator
map and is not meant as a policy document.
Source:
Hawaii Hurricane Relief Fund
What
are the potential losses from future hurricanes on Oahu?
If a Category 1 storm as strong as Hurricane Iwa, with
winds gusting at 74 mph, strikes any of the islands in
the state, we can guess from past experience that about
12% of the houses and apartments could be destroyed or
heavily damaged and about 18% would probably experience
minor damages.
If
a Category 3 storm strikes any island with the same force
as Iniki, with winds raging at 130 mph, we can guess that
about 38% of the homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed.
An additional 40% will probably have minor damages.
The
following information was extrapolated from Kauai Damage
in 1982 and 1992. ($ billion in 1992)
| |
Oahu
|
Maui
|
Hawaii
|
Kauai |
| Iwa-Strength
Storm |
$4.5-7.5
|
$0.8-1.4
|
$0.8-1.4
|
$0.3-0.6
|
| Iniki-Strength
Storm |
$13.9-23.3
|
$2.7-4.5
|
$2.6-4.4
|
$1.1-1.9 |
Source:
Hawaii Coastal Hazard Mitigation Planning Project, Office
of Planning, December 1993
Where
have strong winds been measured on Oahu?
Click to enlarge
Northeast
trade winds predominate throughout most of the year and
generally range in velocity between 10 and 20 mph. Trade
winds of 40-60 mph occasionally occur.
During
the 1993-1994 and 1994-1995 winter seasons, for example,
strong and gusty trade winds of 40 to 50 mph lasted several
days and inflicted damage to rooftops, tree limbs, and
telephone equipment. The east-facing coastlines, as a
result, are the windward coasts and most impacted by trade
wind energy.
Kona
winds are southerly winds and occur as light and variable
winds during summer months. Strong Kona winds generally
occur in the winter and have reached velocities of 50
mph.
Damaging
winds on Oahu are most commonly associated with passing
tropical cyclones. Historically, east-facing coastlines
receive the brunt of strong onshore winds as storms approach
the islands. As Hurricane Iwa passed west of Oahu, the
highest winds were observed at the base of the Pali in
Kaneohe.
Source:
Fletcher, Charles, Eric Grossman, Bruce Richmond. Atlas
of Natural Hazards in the Hawaiian Coastal Zone. 2000.
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